10 replies to this topic

[GMO]

These are the current pressures on food prices:

 

Mass resignations and early retirements post and during covid reduced workforce

Brexit (UK) reduced labour availability

Increased demand post Covid pushed up worldwide labour and fuel demand reducing availability and increasing cost of both

War in Ukraine is increasing commodity prices of basic foodstuffs like wheat

Food price inflation is already the highest in decades and more is forecast while retailers are still pushing to be the cheapest

Just about every value engineering option out there has been done already from the last decades of supermarkets not accepting price increases

War in Ukraine is pushing up fuel prices

Potential threats between hostile nations could impact foods

 

All of this is MASSIVELY increasing risk of economically or ideologically motivated fraud or food contamination.  There is far more testing out there than there was but it's hard to find something when you don't know what to look for.  I'm convinced the next major scandal is probably already happening.

[Duncan]

Wheat - 2022 Data - 1977-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart (tradingeconomics.com)

 

This is hard to fully appreciate, but food commodity prices have been affected to a really catastrophic degree and I've attached a couple of screenshots to illustrate. I genuinely think this is going to affect global markets to an extent that we're probably in collective danger of under-estimating.... But unfortunately this is a situation where comprehending the extent of the damage doesn't readily make way for any practical solutions. I think food fraud will be a problem, but more significantly I think food insecurity is going to become quite pronounced.

Attached Files

•  Canola.PNG   439.23KB   0 downloads
•  Oat.PNG   447.68KB   0 downloads
•  Wheat.PNG   440.72KB   0 downloads

[GMO]

Thanks Duncan.  You're right.  Here I am from a fairly comfortable western country worried about food fraud but let's face it, we can in the UK afford to spend more money on food than we do.  But even in the UK and certainly around the world, there are people who are in a precarious position with food security and while I can afford to downgrade from fresh sardines to tinned ones, there's not much cheaper you can get than a can of pilchards.  I'm being kind of flippant but it's to Jack Monroe's point; the cheapest food inflates quickly as it's low margin and you generally can't make the ingredients cheaper or the processing cheaper.  

It's a terrifying situation which has been unleashed on the world.  I know there are bigger things right now but even Ukraine is peacefully resolved, fields may not be planted, infrastructure destroyed.  The basic commodity price increase on raw materials is now baked in.  What is coming with that is genuinely awful.  And what worries me is big economic shocks and wars have in the past gone hand in hand.  

[ChristinaK]

In the US, we're experiencing a shortage of not only semi-truck drivers, but semi-trucks themselves as well. For smaller companies (like ours) that may only need to ship a couple pallets out to a customer, it is an absolute nightmare trying to schedule a pickup that isn't a full load unless it's local delivery. We used to be pretty lenient when customers scheduled their own pickups, but now we're holding onto multiple completed orders for over a week past the original pickup date...

 

As a friend recently said, "I really hope we're done living in this eventful part of a history book soon."

[Charles.C]

So What's New ?

 

A Policeman's Lot .........(G&S).

[GMO]

 

 

As a friend recently said, "I really hope we're done living in this eventful part of a history book soon."

 

YES!  So bloody true.  I have been saying to my son that he'll tell his grandkids about living through the covid pandemic but this is a whole extra layer of awful.   I thought Brexit was a nightmare!  Now it pales into an irritating insignificance.

[Leila Burin]

Hello,

pls add to this sad list: gas price;

here in Spain several food industries are planning to STOP producing next month

:/

 

Leila

[Scampi]

Hello,

pls add to this sad list: gas price;

here in Spain several food industries are planning to STOP producing next month

:/

 

Leila

 

This is not a good news indicator------enough people already do not have access to enough food

[MDaleDDF]

I'm with Charles, what's new?   Honestly compared to what the world has gone through in the past, it ain't that bad!  So if you're worried about Covid, imagine living during the black plague when bodies were stacked on every street corner.  Now THAT's a pandemic!    If you're worried about the economic issues, consider the great depression, and things will seem nice and sunny!

 

[Ryan M.]

Be grateful you work in this industry which is nearly recession proof (nothing is absolutely recession proof).  On top of that, working in a part of the industry that is always highly sought after (Quality & Food Safety Folks) you will be comfortable regardless of all the hardships in life.  Of course, there will be pains, but almost all of us will be able to ride them out.

 

Honestly, I think the past 30 years has been some of the most easy living comparative to previous generations.  It always makes me chuckle when people go mad over not having access to the internet or cell phone service.  Oy vey...

[zanorias]

I agree with all the of the above, this is unprecedented for most of our generations and in our areas, but I think it's because we've had a relatively peaceful few decades before the past few years. Those of us who are affected only by rising gas and food prices are relatively privileged compared to those worrying about their homes being shelled by a foreign army and their families broken up.

 

A few years ago we had very bad flooding in some parts of the UK which was the news of the time. No one would have guessed a viral pandemic would just around the corner. Similarly this time last year I bet few would have predicted that a physical invasion would occur in Europe a year later. Now we are here...who knows where we will be next year... a truly global conflict with millions fighting and fleeing and campaigns for home growing vegetables perhaps? Or maybe there's a meteor heading our way. Wars and pandemics are dotted through history, I doubt this will be the last of them, but hopefully there will be some peace and stability before the next ones, which will then be "unprecedented" to the new generations