Because we have wheat as our raw material, I think crop reports would be important. If there was rain during the harvest, there would probably be a probability of having to deal with micotoxins. If there is a shortage of wheat worldwide, we could import from countries that we usually don´t buy from and that wheat could have special issues we´d have to deal with, such as different protein levels or enzimatic activity.
Natural catastrophes would also have to be taken into account, as they could affect both your distribution and your source of raw materials. For instance, after Hurricane Katrina, there wasn´t much wheat shipping out of the Gulf Region, in the US.