Dear Simon,
I can imagine Les Dawson might have commented something like –
“Disillusioned ? I didn’t know you’d met tha wife ?”
In the same vein, I’m sure Les would have appreciated the list below taken from the students BMJ -
Appreciating risks in relation to everyday events
Familiar risk / Chance it happens
Getting three balls in the UK national lottery----------------------------------------------------------------- 1 in 11
Dying on the road over 50 years of driving ------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 85
Transmission of measles ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 100
Dying of any cause in the next year --------------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 100
Annual risk of death from smoking 10 cigarettes per day --------------------------------------------------1 in 200
Getting four balls in the UK national lottery -------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 206
Needing emergency treatment in the next year after being injured by a can, bottle, or jar ------------1 in 1000
Needing emergency treatment in the next year after being injured by a bed mattress or pillow --------1 in 2000
Death by an accident at home ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 7100
Getting five balls in the UK national lottery -------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 11, 098
Death by an accident at work ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 40,000
Death playing soccer -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 50,000
Death by murder -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 100,000
Being hit in your home by a crashing aeroplane ------------------------------------------------------------1 in 250,000
Death by rail accident ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 500,000
Drowning in the bath in the next year ------------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 685,000
Getting six balls in the UK national lottery -------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 2, 796,763
Being struck by lightning --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 10, 000, 000
Death from variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease --------------------------------------------------------------1 in 10, 000, 000
Death from a nuclear power accident -----------------------------------------------------------------------1 in 10,000, 0000
Most risks given are approximate.
( http://www.studentbm...torials/396.php )
I’m honoured by the links nom-de-plume although I suspect that a not – negligible proportion are OT. To illustrate the point in a hopefully useful way, I’ve just been looking around for practical examples of the use of risk matrices and I found this really interesting one which I first thought was a joke but actually contains some rather useful ideas IMO –
http://72.14.235.104...8...t=clnk&cd=2
Rgds / Charles.C