Sorry no experience of baking.
Question No.1 - Does Black Treacle itself have any reported history of Fraud ? (I have no idea).
Question No.2 - If so, due to what ? If zero, the task presumably becomes easier.
I'm not sure how many of the previous related threads here you have seen already.
At least 2 approaches to the VA seem to have been OK for BRC -
(1) Write down an essay-type format response to the minimal requirements specified in BRC 5.4.1 - 5.4.3 and then make some deductions in the context of a risk assessment, eg via a matrix.
(2) Deduce a formula to estimate a score for the Vulnerability which will involve much of the same background as (1) but is hopefully more "persuasive".
With respect to "history", the minimum answer appears to require use of databases as detailed previous threads. I daresay you've done that already.
To risk assess the ingredients as per 5.4.2, i suppose you could start as per my previous post/link. Maybe it's possible to group some items.
I hope you have a team.
PS - if you get data-stuck as far as countries are concerned, maybe can apply a general "reputation" factor. eg -
PPS - this comment may also be of interest -
Edited by Charles.C, 26 November 2015 - 09:41 AM.